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Energy, the final frontier
It was never about the algorithm. The Second Bounce of the Ball, Part 4: why cheap electrons, not models, decide who wins the AI era.
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The Second Bounce of the Ball, Part 3: When Governments Can't Tax Productivity Anymore
The coming crisis of governance. How AI severs the connection between productivity and government revenue. When a $100k employee becomes $10k of compute, the tax base evaporates - then what?
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The pendulum swings: when Capital leverage is greater than Labour leverage
Productivity is shifting from wages to watts. From the Jacquard loom to compute clusters: how productivity gains reshape bargaining power.
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The Second Bounce of the Ball
When productive activity shifts from humans to machines, we relocate where economic value gets created and captured. This triggers a cascade of long term effects on people, capital and infrastructure.
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The Fighting Temeraire
On the anniversary of the Battle of Trafalgar.
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Open wins in the end. But why?
Closed systems capture value early. Open systems create it forever. From AOL to AI the pattern repeats, because economic gravity beats corporate strategy.
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The Arc of Progress: Up Sometimes
Why we're living in the most interesting time in 300 years.
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We do not live in exponential times
Why the exponential growth narrative is wrong and what the data actually reveals about progress. And why S-curves, not exponentials, explain why technological progress feels fast but is actually slow.
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From firms to networks: How coordination technology will reorganise everything
Contracts, courts, banks and companies are technology too. Why the next paradigm shift will hit the coordination layer of the economy, not just production.
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What is web3 really about?
Zoom out. What we see as decentralisation is the continuation of the technology project of the twentieth century, automation
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Paradigm shift: augmented reality
Fish cannot see the water. Fifty years of the desktop paradigm, from Engelbart's Mother of All Demos to the smartphone, and why augmented reality breaks it.
Working on something at the inflection point?
Let's talk about where you are and where you want to get to.